Finest Out there UFC Odds and Prop Bets for Pavlovich vs. Blaydes

The UFC returns residence to Las Vegas on Saturday for a heavyweight headliner with potential title implications at UFC Combat Night time: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes. Whereas these ESPN+ UFC Combat Night time occasions are typically pretty low-wattage affairs total, this important occasion between Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes is an attention-grabbing matchup of types that might set up a brand new contender for the UFC heavyweight belt. We’ll check out the UFC odds on Saturday’s Combat Night time headliner.

Finest UFC Combat Night time odds

Curtis Blaydes (17-3, 1 NC) is the favourite right here partly as a result of there’s much more helpful data out there on him. He’s been within the UFC since 2016 and has fought nearly all of the related names at heavyweight in that point. His solely losses in 16 UFC fights are to latest heavyweight champ Francis Ngannou (twice) and Derrick Lewis. That’s spectacular consistency in a division the place even the elite typically wrestle to string wins collectively.

Sergei Pavlovich (17-1) continues to be just a little bit extra of an unknown in some regards. What we’ve seen thus far tells us that he’s an enormous, fast heavyweight with quick palms and loads of energy. The world of his recreation that can be most necessary towards Blaydes can also be the realm we all know the least about — his wrestling.

Blaydes has developed a wrestling assault that’s tailor-made for MMA. He will get in shut for takedowns with out exposing himself within the course of, and he maintains stable prime stress whereas additionally staying busy along with his placing. He’s obtained the persistence to wrestle his strategy to a call if he has to, however he also can end individuals with ground-and-pound.

Pavlovich’s defensive wrestling hasn’t acquired a lot testing within the UFC, the place he’s but to see the second spherical in six fights. The one time he did get placed on his again, by Alistair Overeem, he appeared misplaced. Then once more, that was additionally his first UFC bout, and towards the very definition of a savvy, skilled veteran. It’s nonetheless his solely skilled loss, and people typically don’t present the perfect a younger fighter has to supply.

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Prop odds for Pavlovich vs. Blaydes

If Pavlovich will get his palms going early, he could possibly be an issue for Blaydes. However chances are high he’ll need to cease at the very least a few takedowns (or, failing that, get again to his ft after being taken down), and we don’t but have a terrific sense of how his recreation has progressed in that division. If Pavlovich does win, it can possible be through knockout. He doesn’t have a single submission win to his credit score, and a struggle that goes all 5 rounds will possible favor the well-conditioned Blaydes.

Not surprisingly, oddsmakers appear to suppose that if this struggle goes to finish inside the space, it’ll most likely accomplish that within the first spherical. (This additionally explains the full rounds over/below: ). Heavyweight important occasions that make it previous Spherical 2 develop into way more prone to see the scorecards. The added variable right here is that we’ve but to see what Pavlovich even appears like within the second spherical of a UFC struggle, whereas Blaydes has gone to a call a number of occasions in his profession, together with in a single five-rounder that he gained.

Like Pavlovich, Blaydes has additionally by no means gained a pro-MMA struggle through submission. And whereas he can go the space, there’s much less likelihood that he’ll need to when he has 5 rounds to work. With the potential for this struggle to finish sooner or later within the first two rounds — most likely as a result of strikes — the true query is that if these strikes can be landed on the ft, which favors Pavlovich, or on the mat, which favors Blaydes.

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UFC Combat Night time: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes occasion data

• Date: Saturday, April 22
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas
• Broadcast: ESPN+
• Begin time: Prelims at 4 p.m. ET; important card at 7 p.m. ET